Post by suzeeq Post by RichA
With (supposedly) 50,000 new infections per day (higher than at the
height of the epidemic in early-May), you would expect the death rate
to be between 900-2500 per day. But it's not. It's at 250-700 per
day or 30% of what it once was. So how is that possible? Because
the increased case numbers are not coming from new cases, they are
coming from increased testing. In early May, testing wasn't near at
the pace it is now. So less testing was done per day yet the
detected infection rate showed as high as today. If I'm wrong and
there really are 50,000 new infections per day as claimed, (doubling
the rate since the downturn in Mid-May) then death rates should again
spike up near 700-2500 per day within a week or two.
When it comes to accuracy, Rich and his Fuehrer Trump both make stopped
clocks look good by comparison. Problem is, even the experts are only
going to be as accurate as the data they're fed. In a nutshell, I think
a lot of red states, notably Arizona, Texas, and Florida, and some
counties in blue states such as California and Virginia, are lying about
their Covid-19 death stats, and there's evidence to back that up.
Post by suzeeq
When it first hit, the death rates were higher because of more elderly
and already sick people were infected. They've taken more precautions
in those populations and death rates have gone down as it hits people
who are younger and healthier.
While I think that may be true of places like Italy and Spain, and now
maybe New York City and its outlying commuters in Connecticut and New
Jersey, I don't think this is telling most of the story in the U.S. in
July. To be sure, there are some reasons to think Covid-19 death stats
might not quite be as bad as we've seen before. One is the
aforementioned theory that the disease has already picked off the most
vulnerable. However, since the virus has only truly raged through a
comparatively few geographical locations in the U.S. so far, that
shouldn't account for a lot.
Another possible reason is that treatments have improved some through
trial and error. Patients are rolled on their stomachs sooner. Oxygen
therapy is applied more aggressively. Ventilators are utilized more
conservatively. There are two drugs available now that, while not
miraculous, improve outcomes to a degree. However, even these
improvements shouldn't account for the degree of change in the death
Where you would logically expect to see better death stats as a
percentage of positive cases:
1) States with a younger population, because there are just fewer old
people for the virus to pick off. This especially does not apply to
Arizona and Florida.
2) States with a lower percentage of people of color, because they're
more vulnerable. This especially does not apply to California, Arizona,
Texas, or Florida.
3) States with expanded Medicaid, because when people can't afford to go
to the hospital, they may either die of Covid-19 complications at home
and untested, or else put off going to the hospital until their symptoms
are already too far gone to treat. Also, states with expanded Medicaid
are more likely to have populations whose health problems are treated
more aggressively, leaving them less vulnerable to preexisting
conditions. This should help California, Arizona, and Virginia, but not
Texas or Florida.
4) States that kept their hospitals from being overrun would have fewer
Covid-19 deaths as well as fewer deaths from other causes. Arizona,
Texas, and Florida kept minimizing the danger, and now have problems
with hospital capacity.
Now they're starting to study the excess death stats. This one just
covers through May 30, but already it shows wide disparities in
reporting death stats by state.
"Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is 'a substantial
undercount' of actual tally, Yale study finds"
"The number of excess deaths from any causes were 28% higher
than the official tally of U.S. Covid-19 deaths during those
"The researchers noted the gap between the reported coronavirus
deaths and the excess deaths varied by states. For example,
California reported 4,046 Covid-19 deaths and 6,800 excess
deaths, leaving 41% of the excess deaths unattributed to
Covid-19 they said.
"Texas and Arizona had wider gaps, with roughly 55% and 53%,
respectively, of excess deaths unattributed to Covid-19."
I expect Florida and Georgia to be in line with Texas and Arizona.
Basically, you can double their officially reported Covid-19 death
stats and probably still be undercounting by a bit.