Adam H. Kerman
2020-10-16 19:42:15 UTC
I still have a few political contacts. One friend organized a Zoom
Webinar with a Democratic pollster, the one who works on the Wall Street
Journal/NBC poll. This poll is highly regarded among media polls as they
also hired a top Republican pollster.
Some interesting points about 2016:
The national polls were on track with regard to the popular vote,
predicting within a point or two what each candidate received.
Statewide polls were rather different. No one was doing last-minute
polling and predictions that Hillary was going to win several of the
swing states were based on polls that were several weeks old. This year
some of the state-wide polls may be ocnducted at the last minute.
The difference in 2016 was among late deciders. They overwhelmingly
favored Trump. Trump got any number of people to vote who did not vote
regularly or, in some cases, were middle aged and had never before
registered to vote.
It suggest but doesn't prove that a Republican strategy in specific
states to make it more difficult to register to vote and to purge voting
rolls of people who haven't voted recently but haven't moved away can
actually hurt Republican candidates who are actually capable of making
people enthusiastic about voting like Trump.
Democrats are employing an early-voting strategy. Of mail-in voters and
those who intend to vote early but haven't yet done so, Biden is leading
something like 2-1. Trump is leading among voters who say they'll vote
on election day. That's suggesting a strategy that Trump may declare
victory that night because those votes will be counted sooner than the
substantial number of mail-in votes, then just fight mail-in vote
counting in court.
He wasn't predicting a result. He was predicting lawyers.
He says it's Biden's election to win but Trump can still win those swing
states and get re-elected.
I'll post some links later to let you guys see these polls and