[OT] How to keep Russia from winning in Ukraine

[Rhino]

I watch this guy, Anders Puck Nielsen, regularly. He's a professional
military analyst in Denmark but speaks flawless, unaccented English. He
regularly makes content about the war in Ukraine and this video gives
his views on what a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine/Russia war
could look like. He warns that it is entirely possible for Russia to win
the war at the negotiating table even if it lets Ukraine keep all of the
territory that Russia doesn't yet occupy.

[14 minutes]

He begins by explaining that Russia's idea of victory is NOT to conquer
all of Ukraine's territory but rather to hamstring it politically so
that it doesn't do things that piss off the Russians, like joining NATO.
Almost no one in the West understands this.

[shawn]

On Thu, 12 Dec 2024 15:14:01 -0500, Rhino

Post by Rhino
I watch this guy, Anders Puck Nielsen, regularly. He's a professional
military analyst in Denmark but speaks flawless, unaccented English. He
regularly makes content about the war in Ukraine and this video gives
his views on what a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine/Russia war
could look like. He warns that it is entirely possible for Russia to win
the war at the negotiating table even if it lets Ukraine keep all of the
territory that Russia doesn't yet occupy.
http://youtu.be/MhpoNL1gZbw [14 minutes]
He begins by explaining that Russia's idea of victory is NOT to conquer
all of Ukraine's territory but rather to hamstring it politically so
that it doesn't do things that piss off the Russians, like joining NATO.
Almost no one in the West understands this.

I think everyone in the West understands this. I also think Ukraine
understands it which is why they will not stop fighting so long as
they are able. Given that the European nations clearly see that Russia
is likely to want to gain more protective territory (as Putin has
plainly stated in the past) it seems unlikely they won't continue to
fund Ukraine's fight even if the USA was to stop.

[Rhino]

Post by shawn
On Thu, 12 Dec 2024 15:14:01 -0500, Rhino

Post by Rhino
I watch this guy, Anders Puck Nielsen, regularly. He's a professional
military analyst in Denmark but speaks flawless, unaccented English. He
regularly makes content about the war in Ukraine and this video gives
his views on what a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine/Russia war
could look like. He warns that it is entirely possible for Russia to win
the war at the negotiating table even if it lets Ukraine keep all of the
territory that Russia doesn't yet occupy.
http://youtu.be/MhpoNL1gZbw [14 minutes]
He begins by explaining that Russia's idea of victory is NOT to conquer
all of Ukraine's territory but rather to hamstring it politically so
that it doesn't do things that piss off the Russians, like joining NATO.
Almost no one in the West understands this.

I think everyone in the West understands this. I also think Ukraine
understands it which is why they will not stop fighting so long as
they are able. Given that the European nations clearly see that Russia
is likely to want to gain more protective territory (as Putin has
plainly stated in the past) it seems unlikely they won't continue to
fund Ukraine's fight even if the USA was to stop.

Nielsen's point is that *most* people in the West think Russia's goal is
to occupy ALL of Ukraine. He's explaining that Russia doesn't NEED to
occupy all of Ukraine as long as he intimidates them into a foreign
policy that doesn't upset the Kremlin. Therefore, if he can get them
Ukraine and its partners to agree that it won't seek NATO or EU
membership, Putin will have won even if the large majority of Ukraine
remains unoccupied.