[OT] Major drama in Ottawa today

[Rhino]

The Finance Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Chrystia Freeland
resigned unexpected today, just hours before she was to give the annual
Fall Economic Statement (basically a mini-budget). This brings to NINE
the number of cabinet members who have resigned in recent months. (The
eighth, Sean Fraser, who was considered a rising star and potential
prime minister material, also resigned today, swearing that it was
because he wanted to spend more time with his young family.)

Freeland was told on Friday that she was going to lose her job as
Finance Minister in the imminent cabinet shuffle and apparently decided
that she couldn't endure that after her unswerving loyalty to Trudeau so
she left the cabinet altogether but says she's staying on as a caucus
member. At least one analyst feels sure that she'll be running for the
leadership of the Liberal party after Trudeau is gone.

This puts Trudeau in a very difficult spot. There are leaks to the
effect that the deficit target of $40 billion was far exceeded and is
actually a bit over $60 billion which would raise a lot of anger in this
country and hurt the Liberals. Trudeau apparently wanted Freeland to
tell the country and, in effect, take the blame, but she chose a
different path. It is now an open question whether the Fall Economic
Statement will still be delivered today and, if so, who will deliver it.

Several analysts have argued that Trudeau can't wiggle out of this. Some
are suggesting that this would be the perfect moment for the NDP, which
is propping up the Liberals, to join the other opposition parties in a
vote of non-confidence which would ensure an election.

That would make a WONDERFUL Christmas present for Canadians but I'm
skeptical it will happen. I think Trudeau is more likely to prorogue
(suspend parliament) for a few months to give himself some breathing
space to rebuild what he can. I hope I'm wrong and that he now FINALLY
understands that he is DONE. (The vast majority of Canadians despise him
AND his party.) Then he can step down and let the Liberals choose a new
leader to lead them into the next election. They'll still lose with a
new leader but maybe not QUITE as badly.

[danny burstein]

Post by Rhino
The Finance Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Chrystia Freeland
resigned unexpected today, just hours before she was to give the annual
Fall Economic Statement (basically a mini-budget). This brings to NINE

She's been my A Numebr One Unobtainable Canadian Hearthrob
for a decade, ever since she got the [name of country snipped]
so pissed at her they pulled all their medical students and
(what's comonly called) interns and residents home. And
not at end of semester.. but that weekend.

[Rhino]

Post by danny burstein

Post by Rhino
The Finance Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Chrystia Freeland
resigned unexpected today, just hours before she was to give the annual
Fall Economic Statement (basically a mini-budget). This brings to NINE

She's been my A Numebr One Unobtainable Canadian Hearthrob
for a decade, ever since she got the [name of country snipped]
so pissed at her they pulled all their medical students and
(what's comonly called) interns and residents home. And
not at end of semester.. but that weekend.

I'm not sure why you felt the need to snip "Saudi Arabia" but OK....

[shawn]

On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:09:51 -0500, Rhino

Post by Rhino
The Finance Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Chrystia Freeland
resigned unexpected today, just hours before she was to give the annual
Fall Economic Statement (basically a mini-budget). This brings to NINE
the number of cabinet members who have resigned in recent months. (The
eighth, Sean Fraser, who was considered a rising star and potential
prime minister material, also resigned today, swearing that it was
because he wanted to spend more time with his young family.)
Freeland was told on Friday that she was going to lose her job as
Finance Minister in the imminent cabinet shuffle and apparently decided
that she couldn't endure that after her unswerving loyalty to Trudeau so
she left the cabinet altogether but says she's staying on as a caucus
member. At least one analyst feels sure that she'll be running for the
leadership of the Liberal party after Trudeau is gone.

Which was given as a potential reason for why she resigned as it
separates her from Trudeau. Which may make it easier for her when/if
she runs for the leadership role as she won't be so easily painted
with any of Trudeau's failures.

Post by Rhino
This puts Trudeau in a very difficult spot. There are leaks to the
effect that the deficit target of $40 billion was far exceeded and is
actually a bit over $60 billion which would raise a lot of anger in this
country and hurt the Liberals. Trudeau apparently wanted Freeland to
tell the country and, in effect, take the blame, but she chose a
different path. It is now an open question whether the Fall Economic
Statement will still be delivered today and, if so, who will deliver it.

I get that may be the desire but you would think people would be smart
enough to realize that Freeland isn't putting her own plans in place.
The role is to implement what Trudeau wants which means the deficit is
his fault and yes, she would share in that failure to control the
deficit.

Post by Rhino
Several analysts have argued that Trudeau can't wiggle out of this. Some
are suggesting that this would be the perfect moment for the NDP, which
is propping up the Liberals, to join the other opposition parties in a
vote of non-confidence which would ensure an election.
That would make a WONDERFUL Christmas present for Canadians but I'm
skeptical it will happen. I think Trudeau is more likely to prorogue
(suspend parliament) for a few months to give himself some breathing
space to rebuild what he can. I hope I'm wrong and that he now FINALLY
understands that he is DONE. (The vast majority of Canadians despise him
AND his party.) Then he can step down and let the Liberals choose a new
leader to lead them into the next election. They'll still lose with a
new leader but maybe not QUITE as badly.

[Rhino]

Post by shawn
On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:09:51 -0500, Rhino

Post by Rhino
The Finance Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Chrystia Freeland
resigned unexpected today, just hours before she was to give the annual
Fall Economic Statement (basically a mini-budget). This brings to NINE
the number of cabinet members who have resigned in recent months. (The
eighth, Sean Fraser, who was considered a rising star and potential
prime minister material, also resigned today, swearing that it was
because he wanted to spend more time with his young family.)
Freeland was told on Friday that she was going to lose her job as
Finance Minister in the imminent cabinet shuffle and apparently decided
that she couldn't endure that after her unswerving loyalty to Trudeau so
she left the cabinet altogether but says she's staying on as a caucus
member. At least one analyst feels sure that she'll be running for the
leadership of the Liberal party after Trudeau is gone.

Which was given as a potential reason for why she resigned as it
separates her from Trudeau. Which may make it easier for her when/if
she runs for the leadership role as she won't be so easily painted
with any of Trudeau's failures.

She supported everything he did from the moment she got elected. I don't
think disagreeing with him at this late date is going to do a lot to
distance her from Trudeau. She is still very closely associated with
Trudeau and his policies and I would expect voters to keep that in mind
if she wins the leadership.

Post by shawn

Post by Rhino
This puts Trudeau in a very difficult spot. There are leaks to the
effect that the deficit target of $40 billion was far exceeded and is
actually a bit over $60 billion which would raise a lot of anger in this
country and hurt the Liberals. Trudeau apparently wanted Freeland to
tell the country and, in effect, take the blame, but she chose a
different path. It is now an open question whether the Fall Economic
Statement will still be delivered today and, if so, who will deliver it.

I get that may be the desire but you would think people would be smart
enough to realize that Freeland isn't putting her own plans in place.
The role is to implement what Trudeau wants which means the deficit is
his fault and yes, she would share in that failure to control the
deficit.

It turns out that someone else gave the Fall Economic Statement - I'm
not clear who yet - and a new Finance Minister, another Trudeau loyalist
named Dominic Leblanc, has been sworn in.

It's not clear yet who the media have chosen to blame for the bad
economic news: they're too busy reacting to Freeland's resignation from
cabinet and speculating on what Trudeau will do about his own future.
The pundits are saying Trudeau can't survive this and will have to
resign in the next day or two, which means he'd probably prorogue
(suspend) Parliament for a few months so that the Liberals can choose a
new leader. That would also prevent the opposition parties from having a
no-confidence vote to force an election. But parliament is in session as
I write this and things may go a different way.

In any case, parliament is set to break for Christmas on Wednesday which
inevitably means weeks where they aren't in session - but probably not
long enough for the Liberals to have a leisurely leadership race.

Post by shawn

Post by Rhino
Several analysts have argued that Trudeau can't wiggle out of this. Some
are suggesting that this would be the perfect moment for the NDP, which
is propping up the Liberals, to join the other opposition parties in a
vote of non-confidence which would ensure an election.
That would make a WONDERFUL Christmas present for Canadians but I'm
skeptical it will happen. I think Trudeau is more likely to prorogue
(suspend parliament) for a few months to give himself some breathing
space to rebuild what he can. I hope I'm wrong and that he now FINALLY
understands that he is DONE. (The vast majority of Canadians despise him
AND his party.) Then he can step down and let the Liberals choose a new
leader to lead them into the next election. They'll still lose with a
new leader but maybe not QUITE as badly.

[The Horny Goat]

On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 17:03:15 -0500, Rhino

Post by Rhino
She supported everything he did from the moment she got elected. I don't
think disagreeing with him at this late date is going to do a lot to
distance her from Trudeau. She is still very closely associated with
Trudeau and his policies and I would expect voters to keep that in mind
if she wins the leadership.

Agreed - I'd argue she has been AT LEAST as close to Justin Trudeau as
Kim Campbell was to Brian Mulroney in 1988-93 (Mulroney's last term)
and has faithfully supported him not as a very junior cabinet minister
(which is what Campbell was) but the #2 official in the government and
frequently JT's chosen spokesperson.

But it all comes down to how voters in Toronto swing and it will be
interesting to see how the Toronto Star and the National Post spin
this.

[The Horny Goat]

On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:50:06 -0500, shawn

Post by shawn
Which was given as a potential reason for why she resigned as it
separates her from Trudeau. Which may make it easier for her when/if
she runs for the leadership role as she won't be so easily painted
with any of Trudeau's failures.

Post by Rhino
This puts Trudeau in a very difficult spot. There are leaks to the
effect that the deficit target of $40 billion was far exceeded and is
actually a bit over $60 billion which would raise a lot of anger in this
country and hurt the Liberals. Trudeau apparently wanted Freeland to
tell the country and, in effect, take the blame, but she chose a
different path. It is now an open question whether the Fall Economic
Statement will still be delivered today and, if so, who will deliver it.

I get that may be the desire but you would think people would be smart
enough to realize that Freeland isn't putting her own plans in place.
The role is to implement what Trudeau wants which means the deficit is
his fault and yes, she would share in that failure to control the
deficit.

Your second point is why I completely disagree with you on your first
point.

[The Horny Goat]

On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:09:51 -0500, Rhino

Post by Rhino
The Finance Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Chrystia Freeland
resigned unexpected today, just hours before she was to give the annual
Fall Economic Statement (basically a mini-budget). This brings to NINE
the number of cabinet members who have resigned in recent months. (The
eighth, Sean Fraser, who was considered a rising star and potential
prime minister material, also resigned today, swearing that it was
because he wanted to spend more time with his young family.)

Holy CRAP! I had not heard this story until I saw it hear but
Freeland is at LEAST as important to Justin Trudeau as Vance is to
Trump and up to today and at least in public been Trudeau's most high
profile supporter.

By law the Canadian election MUST be held by Sept/Oct 2025 but could
be advanced. So if Justin Trudeau has a crisis (and this would
definitely be one) he doesn't have much time to recover.

By comparison to this, Biden's second debate is small stuff.

Post by Rhino
Freeland was told on Friday that she was going to lose her job as
Finance Minister in the imminent cabinet shuffle and apparently decided
that she couldn't endure that after her unswerving loyalty to Trudeau so
she left the cabinet altogether but says she's staying on as a caucus
member. At least one analyst feels sure that she'll be running for the
leadership of the Liberal party after Trudeau is gone.

Unless she had said she was stepping down to run for Trudeau's job I
cannot imagine Trudeau firing her - she has been his strong right arm
for at least four years and was considered likely (or at least
plausibly) the first woman to win a Canadian federal election. This
isn't Liz Truss - perhaps Maggie Thatcher going into her first
election.

Post by Rhino
This puts Trudeau in a very difficult spot. There are leaks to the
effect that the deficit target of $40 billion was far exceeded and is
actually a bit over $60 billion which would raise a lot of anger in this
country and hurt the Liberals. Trudeau apparently wanted Freeland to
tell the country and, in effect, take the blame, but she chose a
different path. It is now an open question whether the Fall Economic
Statement will still be delivered today and, if so, who will deliver it.

I shall be watching tomorrow's newspaper closely - I agree with
everything you have said.

Post by Rhino
Several analysts have argued that Trudeau can't wiggle out of this. Some
are suggesting that this would be the perfect moment for the NDP, which
is propping up the Liberals, to join the other opposition parties in a
vote of non-confidence which would ensure an election.
That would make a WONDERFUL Christmas present for Canadians but I'm
skeptical it will happen. I think Trudeau is more likely to prorogue
(suspend parliament) for a few months to give himself some breathing
space to rebuild what he can. I hope I'm wrong and that he now FINALLY
understands that he is DONE. (The vast majority of Canadians despise him
AND his party.) Then he can step down and let the Liberals choose a new
leader to lead them into the next election. They'll still lose with a
new leader but maybe not QUITE as badly.

Your scenario is quite plausible and on your last point I'd say this
ISN'T 1993 (where Brian Mulroney resigned a year before the election,
being replaced by Kim Campbell - I didn't know her personally but DID
know her ex - who was a dean at the University of BC and one of my
math profs as well as being national secretary of the Chess Federation
of Canada which is a post now held by yours truly - I represented the
Federation at his funeral) where Campbell took their party from 156
seats to 2.

I completely lost respect for Mulroney after he said afterwards "even
the Communists in Poland won more than two seats!" since the bottom
line is that his party was running on HIS record, not HERS.

So no question when I read Rhino's posting is was an "OMG OMG" moment
- probably the way most of you felt when you heard "someone's shot at
Trump AGAIN!"

[Rhino]

Post by shawn
On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:09:51 -0500, Rhino

Post by Rhino
The Finance Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Chrystia Freeland
resigned unexpected today, just hours before she was to give the annual
Fall Economic Statement (basically a mini-budget). This brings to NINE
the number of cabinet members who have resigned in recent months. (The
eighth, Sean Fraser, who was considered a rising star and potential
prime minister material, also resigned today, swearing that it was
because he wanted to spend more time with his young family.)

Holy CRAP! I had not heard this story until I saw it hear but
Freeland is at LEAST as important to Justin Trudeau as Vance is to
Trump and up to today and at least in public been Trudeau's most high
profile supporter.
By law the Canadian election MUST be held by Sept/Oct 2025 but could
be advanced. So if Justin Trudeau has a crisis (and this would
definitely be one) he doesn't have much time to recover.
By comparison to this, Biden's second debate is small stuff.

Post by Rhino
Freeland was told on Friday that she was going to lose her job as
Finance Minister in the imminent cabinet shuffle and apparently decided
that she couldn't endure that after her unswerving loyalty to Trudeau so
she left the cabinet altogether but says she's staying on as a caucus
member. At least one analyst feels sure that she'll be running for the
leadership of the Liberal party after Trudeau is gone.

Unless she had said she was stepping down to run for Trudeau's job I
cannot imagine Trudeau firing her - she has been his strong right arm
for at least four years and was considered likely (or at least
plausibly) the first woman to win a Canadian federal election. This
isn't Liz Truss - perhaps Maggie Thatcher going into her first
election.

Trudeau did NOT fire her! Sorry, I omitted that bit. She was told that
she'd get another portfolio - I'm not sure if he specified which one -
in the cabinet shuffle scheduled for this week.

Apparently, she decided that if she stayed on until the shuffle, she'd
have to give the announcement about the massive overrun on the deficit
and, essentially, take the blame (or the lion's share of it) for
herself. That was apparently a bridge too far and she decided to leave
cabinet altogether.

You have to understand I'm trying to give all of this as concisely as I
can and that means I'm going to omit a detail now and again. There is
LOTS of coverage on this at all the Canadian outlets as well as umpteen
videos of reactions by pundits. You really should check all of that out
rather than just relying on my summary.

Post by shawn

Post by Rhino
This puts Trudeau in a very difficult spot. There are leaks to the
effect that the deficit target of $40 billion was far exceeded and is
actually a bit over $60 billion which would raise a lot of anger in this
country and hurt the Liberals. Trudeau apparently wanted Freeland to
tell the country and, in effect, take the blame, but she chose a
different path. It is now an open question whether the Fall Economic
Statement will still be delivered today and, if so, who will deliver it.

I shall be watching tomorrow's newspaper closely - I agree with
everything you have said.

By the way, Dominic Leblanc has been sworn in as the new Finance
Minister and Karina Gould, the Government House Leader, delivered the
mini-budget, which must have been awkward as hell for her given that
it's normally done by the Finance Minister and she has nothing to do
with it.

Post by shawn

Post by Rhino
Several analysts have argued that Trudeau can't wiggle out of this. Some
are suggesting that this would be the perfect moment for the NDP, which
is propping up the Liberals, to join the other opposition parties in a
vote of non-confidence which would ensure an election.
That would make a WONDERFUL Christmas present for Canadians but I'm
skeptical it will happen. I think Trudeau is more likely to prorogue
(suspend parliament) for a few months to give himself some breathing
space to rebuild what he can. I hope I'm wrong and that he now FINALLY
understands that he is DONE. (The vast majority of Canadians despise him
AND his party.) Then he can step down and let the Liberals choose a new
leader to lead them into the next election. They'll still lose with a
new leader but maybe not QUITE as badly.

Your scenario is quite plausible and on your last point I'd say this
ISN'T 1993 (where Brian Mulroney resigned a year before the election,
being replaced by Kim Campbell - I didn't know her personally but DID
know her ex - who was a dean at the University of BC and one of my
math profs as well as being national secretary of the Chess Federation
of Canada which is a post now held by yours truly - I represented the
Federation at his funeral) where Campbell took their party from 156
seats to 2.
I completely lost respect for Mulroney after he said afterwards "even
the Communists in Poland won more than two seats!" since the bottom
line is that his party was running on HIS record, not HERS.

Yeah, that was clearly a classless move.

Post by shawn
So no question when I read Rhino's posting is was an "OMG OMG" moment
- probably the way most of you felt when you heard "someone's shot at
Trump AGAIN!"

Since I started the thread, some of the pundits have said Trudeau can't
get past this and will have to step down as party leader in the next day
or two, which would be an awesome Christmas present for this country.
But I think they're forgetting how indispensable Trudeau thinks he is. I
don't think he has any real idea how hated he is and how he is dragging
down the party that was slavishly loyal to him. He reminds me of Hitler
in his bunker at the end of WW II ultimately blaming the imminent defeat
of Germany on his own people who let him down.

Still, just as Joe Biden had absolutely no desire to step down after his
disastrous performance in the debate with Trump, Trudeau may yet be
pressured out although I think it will be harder given Trudeau's
implacable narcissism.

[The Horny Goat]

On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 20:17:03 -0500, Rhino

Post by Rhino
Trudeau did NOT fire her! Sorry, I omitted that bit. She was told that
she'd get another portfolio - I'm not sure if he specified which one -
in the cabinet shuffle scheduled for this week.

After reading your posting yesterday I went onto the CBC News feed and
watched 4+ hours of talking heads talking about the situation and
stayed up past 2 am since no question that was a "Holy Sh**!!!" type
news story.

Apparently she DID know what her new position was to be and it was
definitely a demotion from the finance ministry which most people
consider the #2 job in the Canadian government.

Post by Rhino
Apparently, she decided that if she stayed on until the shuffle, she'd
have to give the announcement about the massive overrun on the deficit
and, essentially, take the blame (or the lion's share of it) for
herself. That was apparently a bridge too far and she decided to leave
cabinet altogether.

Yup - that's how the story was played though to be fair financial
policy (most definitely including the size of the deficit) comes from
the PMO (er - "Prime Minister's Office") and the finance minister
merely works out the budget details as directed. Just like in the US.
Does anybody seriously think Treasury Secretary Janice Yellen makes
the key decisions? Of course not - it's Biden (or whichever unnamed
person is making the decisions for the next few weeks)

Post by Rhino
You have to understand I'm trying to give all of this as concisely as I
can and that means I'm going to omit a detail now and again. There is
LOTS of coverage on this at all the Canadian outlets as well as umpteen
videos of reactions by pundits. You really should check all of that out
rather than just relying on my summary.

As I say - I watched 4 hours of the CBC's coverage last night after
getting the headline from you and didn't even go to another network.

That's even longer than I watched on 7 October 2023...